Selling the Priceless: The Economy, Democracy and the 2018 Election

Campaign strategist James Carville famously coined the phrase, “it’s the economy, stupid” during the 1992 presidential election. Carville’s exact words were a little different but the phrase lives on in American political lore nonetheless. The axiom suggests what is most important to the American voter: economic prosperity. Indeed, Bill Clinton used this mantra to defeat then President George H.W. Bush. Clinton benefited from a recession that bogged down the economy and helped turn Bush’s approval rating from 90% in March 1991 to a 64% disapproval rating a year later.

The economy was a top issue for voters in 2016, 2014,2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, etc. The United States is an absurdly rich nation and yet many still worry about their prosperity. The economy appears to be humming along but prospective voters in this year’s election say it’s one of their biggest concerns.

President Trump likes to boast about his deal making abilities. He also prides himself on being a successful businessman whose money making acumen would carry over into government. I’m wary about giving any president too much praise or blame when it comes to the economy. A country with a gross domestic product of almost $20 trillion is dependent on a number of variables. Still, Trump believes he’s solely responsible for the current economic boom so let’s take a look at the numbers.

• Under Trump the US has continued to add jobs. In fact the economy hasn’t reported a net loss in jobs since September 2010.
• Wage growth remains sluggish with modest gains of 2–3%. According to PEW, “today’s real average wage has about the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago.”
• Health care premiums continue to climb although at least one plan covered by the ACA will see its premiums go down. However, consider that in 2018 the Trump administration eliminated a subsidy which caused the insurance industry to dramatically increase rates. Who knows if costs would have gone down further had the subsidy been left in place.
• Home prices continue to climb, continuing a trend that began in 2012.
• Gas remains close to $3.00 a gallon. As of October 15 the nationwide average for a gallon of gas was $2.89, a 42 cent increase over a year ago.
• Student loan debt is a mind-numbing $1.53 trillion.
• The US national debt is now over $21 trillion. Republicans used to care about the debt and Trump promised to “eliminate it over a period of eight years.” If nothing changes we will soon be paying more on the interest for our debt than on the “military, Medicaid or children’s programs.”

I’m no economist but this seems like a mixed bag at best. Remember, the US is a nation of unprecedented wealth. We have two companies valued at over a trillion dollars. In 2015 the “top 1 percent of families took home an average of 26.3 times as much income as the bottom 99 percent.” The modest wage growth experienced by so many isn’t true for top wage earners. “Among people in the top tenth of the distribution, real wages have risen a cumulative 15.7%, to $2,112 a week — nearly five times the usual weekly earnings of the bottom tenth.” Despite this embarrassment of riches President Trump’s signature (only) legislative achievement is a huge tax break to companies that will further increase the disparity between rich and poor while also ratcheting up our nation’s debt.

Is it “the economy, stupid?” If so then Trump is doing almost nothing to help most Americans. Indeed, his tariffs ended up hurting American farmers so badly that the federal government had to bail them out. Trump’s updated NAFTA deal has yet to be implemented but the agreements he struck appear to be limited in scope. Poverty rates in the United States have changed very little since Trump took office. In 2016 the rate was 12.7% and inched slightly downward to 12.3% last year. An estimated 40–45 million Americans live below the poverty level.

Some context is important. The median household income in the United States is $61,372. By comparison Gallup conducted a poll in 2013 to determine the global median household income. The comprehensive survey covered 131 populations over a six year period between 2006 to 2012. The data showed the global household median income to be at less than $10,000. Bottom line: The US is a wealthy nation and has been for quite some time. Even during economic downturns we’re still doing better than most of the world.

All this is to say that maybe this election shouldn’t be about “the economy, stupid.” If it has to be then why not focus on the millions living in poverty or rising healthcare costs or ballooning student loan payments or the myriad of other financial strains that make the American Dream feel like a fantasy for so many?

But why should this election be at all about “the economy, stupid?” I’ll say this again: the average median household in the United States $61,372. You may not feel rich, but by comparison even the poorest Americans are more well off than most of the rest of the world. That doesn’t mean we should ignore issues related to poverty and homelessness or that your suffering isn’t valid. I just want to offer perspective because we’ve lost a lot these past two years and have gained little in return. Trump, the business savant, has done next to nothing for most middle or working class people, so why do we tolerate his Twitter tirades and his boorish insults? Why do we allow him to degrade women, people of color, immigrants, Muslims, allies, survivors of sexual assault, etc.? Why are we okay with his admiration of brutal dictators and white supremacists? How can we let this president’s power go unchecked after he created a policy that separated children from their parents? How can any person or party who claims to value independence and individual rights be comfortable with a president who wants to strip some Americans of their right to serve? How can those same people be okay with efforts to purge voter rolls and otherwise deny citizens the right to cast a ballot? How can attacks on a free press be so casually dismissed as “fake news?” How can this president’s autocratic tendencies-his desire to lock up political rivals, jail journalists and stymie federal investigations-be anything but a cause for alarm? Why do we allow a president to call people Americans he disagrees with, people like me, enemies of the state? Why are we indifferent to this president’s ignorance of climate change and the calamity knocking on our door? Why trade everything this country is supposed to be about: fairness, rule of law, religious liberty, checks and balances, innovation, Democracy? Why sell the priceless and get only pennies in return?

In short, this election is about many things but the economy isn’t one of them.